North-Western Shelf forecasts

During the ForCoast project, implemented a high-resolution coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the North-Western Shelf (NWS) of the Black Sea, and of the southern Romanian coastal zone. Below you can find some plots of the latests operational forecasts of the NWS area in the Black Sea, at a horizontal resolution of 1 kilometer. The full, original forecasts are available as CF-compliant netcdf-4 files from our Thredds server.

Revision history

2020/04/25: a new high-resolution forecasting system of the North-Western Shelf, based on the NEMO 3.6 hydrodynamical model coupled with the BAMHBI biogeochemical model, is built

2017/03/01: after 6 years of free daily analysis and forecasts, the system is brought offline due to redundancy with CMEMS

2015: published the forecasting system validation in an Ocean Modelling paper.

2014/01/14: transformed the deterministic system into an ensemble forecasting system, and replaced the data assimilation method by an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)

2013/01/09: added daily assimilation of T/S profiles from ARGO floats, and of satellite SST, using a fixed-base SEEK filter

2012/02/01: discovered a problem with the HYCOM data retrieval script; some initial conditions might have been erroneous. Downloading all HYCOM data again, and rerunning all model simulations up to today.

2012/01/31: automated download of MyOcean data relative to the Black Sea (SST, SLA tracks, MHI forecasts): completed scripts, crontabbed

2012/01/28: download of ECMWF historic atmospheric fields for comparison with NCEP data: completed script

2011/12/21: GHER3D model scripted to run daily after NCEP data download is completed. The script does the following:
- check for initial condition presence,
- check for atmospheric forcings,
- run the model two times, 1 day with a 5-minute timestep, then 7 days with a 10-minute timestep,
- check for success,
- put forecasts online on the THREDDS server,
- generate 2 animated gifs and put online. ver. 1.0, completed scripts, crontabbed

2011/12/20: automated download of HYCOM model data relative to the Black Sea (OpenDAP): completed scripts, crontabbed

2011/10/17: automated download of NCEP atmospheric data relative to the Black Sea: completed scripts, crontabbed

2011/10/09: automated download of Coriolis data relative to the Black Sea (ARGO profiles): completed scripts, crontabbed